The Shifting Tide

The rural renaissance of the 1970s seems to be over, the U.S. Census Bureau says. During the 1970s, rural population in the United States grew faster than metropolitan population. During 1980-84, however, metro-area growth nationwide was 4.5% and rural growth 3.4%.

Census officials aren’t sure of the cause, nor are they certain that the old pattern of dominant growth in the cities and suburbs has been reestablished permanently. It is apparent, however, that rural growth continues to be strong in certain areas of California.

The 1986 edition of California Almanac reports that many smaller counties outgrew urban regions on a percentage basis. These included Nevada and Calavaras counties, 29% each; San Benito, 20%; El Dorado and Mariposa, 19%; Amador, 18%, and Tuolumne, 16%. The Gold Rush area of the Sierra foothills seems to be particularly alluring to new residents.

A Census Bureau expert speculated that the recession and lack of jobs in rural areas most likely had an effect on the rush to the countryside across the nation. In the ‘70s, places like New York, Baltimore and Washington lost population. But those metro regions are on the rise again. Among the metropolitan areas that lost population since 1980 are such farm-belt cities as Davenport, Iowa, and Peoria, Ill.

No doubt many of the 1970s emigrants from the cities had overly grand visions about the quiet rural life and the ability to make a living in smaller cities and towns. The expected energy boom never came about in a number of Western communities. And many central cities have become more attractive places in which to live and work in the past decade.

The new census figures continue to demonstrate the dramatic growth of California. The state’s population reached 25.8 million at the start of this year, more than the population of the entire country in 1850 and an increase of more than 10 million in the past 25 years. The Los Angeles metro area now stands at 12.4 million, and all of Southern California at more than 15 million.

There is still room for growth in California. The California Almanac, using state Department of Finance figures, estimates that Alpine County will have a population of 1,600 by 1990; Sierra, 3,800; Mono, 11,800, and Modoc, 10,000.