Battle Lines Drawn for Future of El Toro Base : Air station: Closure plan pits airport boosters against residents fearful of wasted tax dollars, and overflights.

EL TORO MARINE BASE — Depending on who is talking, the decision to close El Toro Marine Corps Air Station will prove to be either Orange County’s greatest economic boon since Disneyland, or a titanic waste of tax dollars some have dubbed “The Billion-Dollar Blunder.”

That two sides could have such divergent views underscores an increasingly high-stakes game to be played out this week before a federal panel, which will help decide the fate of the local base.

The debate, which will reach a key phase Tuesday during public hearings of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission in San Diego, is far broader than whether the air station contributes to the country’s military preparedness.

It is a collision of interests that has punched the political and socioeconomic hot buttons of the county--the inbred conservative ethic that disdains the waste of tax dollars versus the fear that the economic downturn is worsening and that the more than 4,700 acres occupied by the Marines can be used as a commercial airport to rev up Orange County’s sluggish economy.

Opposed to the closing is a coalition of South County residents backed by the Orange County Board of Supervisors. The effort has developed into an old-fashioned taxpayers’ protest.

Using the military’s own documents and some common sense economics, the opponents argue that the plan to realign West Coast air stations--including moving El Toro’s Marines to the Miramar Naval Air Station in San Diego--will cost far more than the $898 million estimated by the military.

But behind the talk about saving tax dollars is a considerable dose of self-interest. Some of the opponents simply don’t want the noise, congestion and overflights of residential areas often associated with commercial aviation.

While their momentum has been building, the grass-roots opposition to the closing is running into a wall of conventional wisdom that presumes that once singled out, it is difficult to take a base off the closure list.

And with most of the Orange County congressional delegation staying out of the fight, proponents of an “El Toro Airport” already have begun making a case for a commercial facility.

Led by Newport Beach, the coalition favoring base conversion to a commercial airport has released studies showing that by the year 2005, another regional airport could infuse $1.7 billion a year into the county economy--money that would be made by airlines, freight companies and related commerce.

Longtime advocates of conversion, such as Newport Beach Deputy City Manager Kenneth J. Delino, say that replacing the military with a commercial airport makes overwhelming sense economically and environmentally.

“Sure, Newport Beach has its motives,” said Delino, noting that the city has long fought to reduce aircraft noise at neighboring John Wayne. “But it does not mean our arguments are bad.”

Both sides began marshaling their forces shortly after the Department of Defense--in an eleventh-hour decision--added El Toro to a list of recommended base closures released in March as part of the continuing cutbacks in defense spending made possible by the end of the Cold War.

Under the plan, El Toro, the Tustin Marine Corps helicopter base, the naval air station at Barber’s Point, Hawaii, and the Marine Corps air station at Kaneohe Bay, also in Hawaii, will be closed or scaled back at an estimated savings of $1.374 billion over 20 years.

At a proposed cost of $898 million, the Marine squadrons, most based at El Toro, will be sent to Miramar Naval Air Station in San Diego, which will receive almost 260 airplanes and helicopters. In addition, 49 Marine helicopters will be assigned to Camp Pendleton.

The Navy plans to move a somewhat smaller number of Navy aircraft to Lemoore Naval Air Station in Central California and put its famous Fighter Weapons School, better known as “Top Gun,” at Fallon Naval Air Station in Nevada.

The Pentagon recommended closing El Toro because of low military value, limited expansion possibilities, urban encroachment and the fact that much of its training is conducted over private property.

Defense planners believe that Miramar, with 24,000 acres compared to El Toro’s 4,700, can accommodate the Marines in existing facilities with “some minor military construction.” Though 14,000 acres of the base is an ecological reserve, they say, a substantial amount of acreage can be used for new facilities or expansion in case of national emergency.

They also contend that by moving Tustin’s helicopters to Miramar, the Marines will not have to build a $600-million helicopter facility at Twentynine Palms Marine Air-Ground Combat Center in the high desert of Southern California.

That amount is included in the projected savings of $1.3 billion. But the Pentagon’s figures apparently do not include the cost of building helicopter facilities at Miramar.

At the time of the decision, it was believed that Orange County, with only 6.1% unemployment, which is below the national average, would not be hurt as bad by the loss of a base as other parts of the country.

But ever since El Toro was added to the closure list, skepticism has mounted among high-ranking Marines, local politicians and a growing citizens group, the Coalition for a Responsible Airport Solution, that the plan will actually save money.

Maj. Gen. P. Drax Williams, commander of all Marine air operations on the West Coast, has questioned the Defense Department data and underlying assumptions of the decision. So, too, has Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach); Supervisor Thomas F. Riley, a former Marine general himself, and the coalition.

Much of the opposition is being organized by the coalition, which first rallied in 1988 when it blocked attempts to turn El Toro into a commercial facility. It claims a membership of 4,000 residents, including civic leaders from 10 South County cities.

Irvine City Councilman William A. (Art) Bloomer, a retired Marine brigadier general and coalition leader, often calls the decision to move the Marines to Miramar “a billion-dollar blunder.”

Though $340 million has been earmarked for new construction at Miramar, the skeptics contend that twice that amount is needed to build facilities for the Marines, including substantial accommodations for helicopters.

According to statistics from the Navy and Marines, Miramar has about 4.23 million square feet of facilities; El Toro alone has about 7.5 million square feet, more than 3 million more than Miramar.

At a time of shrinking defense budgets, Bloomer and Williams say, the appropriations to build the additional facilities might be very hard to come by.

Coalition members argue that it might make more sense economically to shut Miramar and relocate its Navy squadrons because there is more surplus space available at Navy airfields than at Marine air stations.

According to the Navy, there is unused capacity at its bases in the western United States, but simply reassigning squadrons is not that easy and depends upon the mission of the aircraft.

“This is a scam on the American taxpayer,” Bloomer said. “Why are we making all these moves? If Miramar has excess capacity, it is the one that ought to be closed because they have to move all the F-14s out of Miramar to make room for the F-18s from here. So I think this thing is just plain crazy.”

Another major concern for local Marine commanders is the lack of military housing in and around Miramar. Though new housing projects are planned, the Navy already has a shortage of 6,000 units in San Diego County.

Miramar now has 300 housing units, compared to more than 2,700 on-base homes at El Toro and Tustin. By relocating, the Marines might have to pay out tens of millions of dollars in housing allowances.

Equally concerned about the bottom line is Rep. Cox, who has been pestering Marine commanders in Washington for more details to determine whether the base realignment plan actually saves money. His only conclusion so far, he said, is that El Toro was placed on the base closure list without proper analysis.

“Anyone who says that he or she knows the answer is less than honest because the numbers simply are not available yet,” said Cox, who added that the cost of accommodating the El Toro Marines at Miramar might well exceed $1 billion.

Cox noted that part of the projected savings over 20 years comes from the idea that $600 million will not have to be spent to build a helicopter base at Twentynine Palms if Tustin’s helicopters are moved to Miramar and Camp Pendleton.

“It’s as if we were to say, ‘It will cost $10 billion to build a base on the moon. We are not, however, going to build the base on the moon,’ ” Cox said, adding that there are no real savings if the proposed base is not going to be built.

But Cox said that if it can be proven that the shutdown will save tax dollars, then he will support closing El Toro.

If official opposition to the base closing were to fade, the coalition will be up against Newport Beach, commercial interests, and a lobbying effort by air cargo carriers in Washington who have been denied access to John Wayne and want El Toro converted so they will have a base of operations in Orange County.

They contend the air station’s military value is dwindling and that Orange County would be better served economically and environmentally by converting El Toro to a commercial airport.

Delino, who is executive director of the Orange County Cities Airport Authority, argues that the county already needs a new airport.

Today, John Wayne handles about 5.4 million passengers a year, but the overall demand is 13 million passengers a year, analysts say. By the year 2010, the demand for air travel is expected to reach 23 million passengers a year in Orange County. John Wayne’s capacity has been fixed at 8.4 million passengers annually by a court settlement of a suit filed by Newport Beach over noise pollution.

Second, the demand for air cargo services is growing nationally. From 1970 to 1990, it increased 9% a year on average, and it is expected to rise 6% a year until 2000.

A study commissioned by the Airport Authority, a group of five central and north Orange County cities, indicates that the commercialization of El Toro is feasible. The research concludes that a new airport will create more than 52,000 jobs, pump at least $4.3 billion into the regional economy by 2005 and provide a catalyst for real estate development. The anticipated benefit is more than the impact of both local Marine bases, which generate about $500 million a year and about 24,000 military and civilian jobs for the regional economy.

Environmentally, proponents of a commercial airport contend that jet noise and air pollution would be greatly reduced by eliminating the flights of powerful military jets and reducing the need for travelers to drive to Los Angeles International Airport.

Air pollution would not necessarily be aggravated locally, they say, because the El Toro airport will have its own Amtrak station, thus minimizing automobile traffic.

Any short-term economic loss due to the closure of El Toro should be easily offset, analysts say, if the shutdown is gradual and occurs during an upturn in the economy. Ideally, they say, commercial operations should be phased in as military use is reduced to minimize the hardship.

“The losses will not be drastic if a phase out of operations is done, and an abrupt closure is not likely,” said Prof. Ismael Adibi, director of the Center for Economic Research at Chapman University.

Adibi said earlier reports that the negative economic impact caused by the closing of Tustin and El Toro would top $1 billion have been taken out of context. That original amount, he added, is for the closure of four bases in Southern California, including Long Beach Naval Shipyard and March Air Force Base.

Adibi warned that there has been a lot of hype about the impact of the base closure and the urgency has been misplaced. “Politicians have talked about this like it is going to happen tomorrow, but it isn’t,” he said. “Hopefully the economy will be in an expansion phase and the jobs lost will be easily absorbed. But the ultimate benefit probably won’t be realized for 10 to 20 years.”

Even Bloomer, who is opposed to the closing, says El Toro could make a fine commercial airport if the east-west runways are lengthened by 2,000 feet and some of the hills to the east are graded off to increase safety for commercial carriers.

Economic analysts, however, caution that many important matters have yet to be worked out, and the local economy is still locked in one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The total costs of converting El Toro to a commercial airport have not been determined. It is not even known whether the land will be donated to the county, or whether the federal government will agree to lease all or part of the base to the county or private interests.

Just as clouded is the economic outlook for the county. Some analysts say that if El Toro’s land is freed for commercial, industrial or residential uses before the turn of the century, there might be a very small market for it.

Today, there is an enormous glut of commercial real estate in Orange County--with vacancy rates running as high as 22% or a 12-year supply at current rental rates. Values of vacant land have plunged 25% to 50%, and banks have been unwilling to lend for real estate development.

Even before the recession began in 1990, manufacturing as a percentage of overall economic activity was in decline. Further reductions in the local aerospace industry are expected as well.

“There will be virtually no demand in the years ahead,” said Alfred E. Gobar, a real estate consultant. “If El Toro became available it would take 10 years to absorb the land assuming there is no other commercial or industrial construction anywhere else in the county.”

But even with the recession and disenchantment with the business climate in California, Orange County is still expected to grow substantially. Projections made by the governor’s office indicate that the county’s population will grow from 2.2 million people to 3.7 million by 2040, steadily increasing the demand for air travel and all types of real estate.

Politically, the proponents of El Toro’s commercialization are expected to encounter the stiffest opposition from South County residents who are convinced they will pay the price for the anticipated progress.

Col. Leonard R. Fuchs Jr., the community plans and liaison officer for El Toro, said that South County residents are concerned about heavily loaded air cargo planes over their homes and the prospect of more commercial flights than military ones.

Jim Fox of Leisure World in Laguna Hills said he is dubious of promises by Delino that only the east-to-west runways at El Toro--the least noisy alternative--will be used by commercial jets.

The north-south runways will have to be used, Fox says, because winds and topography will demand it. And if that happens, commercial jets will pass directly over Leisure World and other South County areas shortly after takeoff.

“There are a lot of theories about El Toro,” he said. “Let me inject some reality into the discussion. During Desert Storm, there were lots of civilian aircraft used to ferry troops and cargo. All of them took off over Leisure World.”

Delino said that the fear of greatly increased noise is unfounded because commercial jets are 20 to 30 decibels quieter than military jet fighters.

According to studies by Mestre Greve & Associates, an acoustical engineering company that has done consulting for Newport Beach, the areas impacted by noise from commercial jets are far smaller than those of military jets.

“People have the false impression . . . that wherever F-18s are flying, commercial jets will be flying and that they will be louder,” Delino said. “Once people understand the graphic scale of this thing it becomes much more palatable.”

Times staff writer Robert W. Stewart in Washington contributed to this article.

* PUBLIC FORUM: Residents air their views about future uses for Tustin base. B1

Irritation Zones

The area affected by a Marine Corps F/A-18 Hornet fighter-bomber operating out of El Toro is about twice the size of the area affected by a commercial McDonnell Douglas MD-80, one of the quieter airliners in service.

Noise zone key

MD-80: Based on the noise of one airplane, this is the distance from the plane at which 85 decibels of noise is reached. At that level, speech, sleep and relaxation are affected.

F/A-18: Zone also is subject to 85 decibels; covers about 31,000 acres of residential area.

Military No Home Zone: State and federal laws prohibit homes within this area.

Aircraft Noise Levels

A Marine Corps F/A-18 Hornet fighter-bomber is considerably louder than the type of commercial jets that might fly out of El Toro should it be converted to civilian use. Figures in decibels.

Approach Departure F/A-18 Hornet 112 105 DC-10 94 91 Boeing 767 89 74 Boeing 757 87 71 Boeing 737 88 86 McDonnell Douglas MD-80 84 83

Source: Mestre Greve & Associates; city of Newport Beach

Closure Procedure

Eight major points make up the selection criteria for base closure, with the highest priority given to issues such as operational readiness, the condition of facilities and moving costs. Here’s how the steps to close El Toro are unwinding:

March 15: The secretary of defense submitted to the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission and Congress the list of recommended closures. Commissioners include former members of Congress, retired military personnel and members of the business community.

April 27: Commissioners will hold a public hearing in San Diego on the Pentagon’s recommendations concerning military installations on the West Coast.

April 28: One commissioner will tour El Toro.

June 1: Commission publishes any proposed changes in the Defense Department’s list of bases to be closed.

July 1: Commission sends recommendations to President Clinton.

July 15: Clinton approves or disapproves recommendations. If he agrees, they are sent to Congress, which must consider the report without amendment. Lawmakers have 45 working days or until adjournment, whichever comes first, to enact a joint resolution of disapproval. If resolution does not clear Congress, commission recommendations will be adopted.

Aug. 15: Date by which new report must be submitted if Clinton rejects commission recommendations.

Sept. 1: Deadline for Clinton to approve commission’s revised recommendation. If he disapproves, there are no base closures in this round.

Source: Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission

Scorecard: El Toro Vs. Miramar

As part of its analysis to decide which air stations should be closed, the Navy Department scored the bases in seven categories to assess their military value. A perfect score is 100 points. Of the 25 bases ranked, the Whidbey Island Naval Air Station off the Washington coast received the highest grade, 81.56. Five bases scored lower than El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, but not Miramar Naval Air Station--destination of El Toro’s Marines.

El Toro Miramar Flight training area/air space 35.23 31.92 Development encroachment and base expansion 2.02 10.52 Airfield, maintenance and unique facilities 6.82 9.08 Location .94 .94 Military/general support missions 3.38 2.41 Base loading 3.06 3.33 Quality of life 4.16 11.55 TOTAL 55.61 69.75

Source: Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission

El Toro Base at a Glance

Date of commission: March, 1943

Size: 4,738 acres; 2.8 million square yards of airfield pavement and runways

Runway lengths: two 10,000 feet long and two at 8,000 feet

Mission: Originally for Marine Corps pilots’ fleet operations training. Selected in 1950 for development as a master jet air station and center for West Coast Marine aviation.

Aircraft: 13 CH-46 helicopters, 97 F-18 fighter jets, 12 KC-130 transport/refuelers, and a station operations and maintenance squadron

Total flights: 111,861 in 1992

Employees: 6,200 military, 2,150 civilian

Annual payroll: $174.7 million

Housing: 2,727 units, including 1,539 at Tustin Marine Corps Air Station to be assigned to El Toro Marines once Tustin ceases operations

Source: El Toro Marine Corps Air Station

Base Closure Commission

Jim Courter, chairman, is a former New Jersey congressman. While in Congress from 1979 until 1991, he chaired the House Military Reform Caucus and several subcommittees of the House Armed Services Committee. In 1987, he was appointed to the joint select committee charged with investigating the diversion of funds to the Nicaraguan Contras. Courter is senior partner of a law firm he founded in Hackettstown, N.J.

Peter B. Bowman is a career naval officer. He attended tha U.S. Naval Nuclear Power School and the Naval Submarine School, and served on nuclear submarines and at Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard. He retired in 1990 after 30 years of service. Bowman is vice president for quality assurance for Gould Inc., a diversified manufacturing company in Newburyport, Mass.

Beverly B. Byron represented Maryland in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1978 to January, 1993. As chairman of the military personnel and compensation subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, Byron directed congressional oversight of 42% of the U.S. defense budget and played a key role in the reduction of U.S. forces overseas. Byron also chaired the House Special Panel on Arms Control and Disarmament from 1983 to 1986.

Rebecca G. Cox served as assistant to the President and director of the Office of Public Liaison for President Ronald Reagan. Before her service at the White House, Cox was at the Department of Transportation as assistant secretary for government affairs and counselor to the secretary. Cox is vice president for government affairs for Continental Airlines.

Gen. Hansford T. Johnson, U.S. Air Force (retired), served in the Air Force 33 years. He was commander in chief of the U.S. Transportation Command and of the Air Mobility Command, leading them in Operation Desert Shield and Operation Desert Storm. Johnson served in South Vietnam, commanded the 22nd Bombardment Wing, was deputy chief of staff for operations of the Strategic Air Command, vice commander in chief of Pacific Air Forces, deputy commander in chief of the U.S. Central Command and director of the Joint Staff of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Johnson is now chief of staff of the United Services Automobile Assn.

Arthur Levitt Jr. founded the American Business Conference, was a director of the President’s Private Sector Survey on Cost Control, chairman of the 1980 White House Small Business Conference and chairman and chief executive officer of the American Stock Exchange. Levitt was a commissioner on the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission in 1991. He is chairman of the board at Levitt Media Co. and is on the board of the Rockefeller Foundation.

Harry C. McPherson Jr. served as deputy undersecretary of the Army for international affairs and as assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs. McPherson served as special counsel to President Lyndon B. Johnson. He is a partner in a Washington law firm and vice chairman of the U.S. International Trade and Cultural Center Commission.

Robert D. Stuart Jr. was U.S. ambassador to Norway from 1984 to 1989 after serving as president, chief executive officer and chairman of the Quaker Oats Co. He was a commissioner on the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission in 1991. Stuart is president of Conway Farms, a real estate development company, and director of the Atlantic Council, the Washington Center and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.