Contenders Look to Make a Break

BALTIMORE — Space limitations in Forty Niner’s old past-performance record from the Daily Racing Form reduce the colt’s trip in the 1988 Preakness to two words: “Brushed rival.”

That’s a rank understatement. What Forty Niner did to Winning Colors, the Kentucky Derby winner, in that Preakness was an all-out mugging. Had that happened on the street, the perpetrator would have gotten hard time. The only penalty for the late Woody Stephens, who trained Forty Niner, was a seventh-place defeat, the colt’s worst in a 19-race career.

By one count, Forty Niner and his jockey, the choirboyish Pat Day riding to Stephens’ pre-race ultimatum, came out and bumped, brushed and intimidated the filly and her rider, Gary Stevens, 12 times. A gritty Winning Colors still finished third as Risen Star won, but Stephens had his pyrrhic outcome. What he promised the day after the Derby was accomplished: The filly didn’t win the next one.

The Triple Crown series of 14 years ago is relevant now because, until War Emblem won the Derby in gate-to-wire fashion almost two weeks ago, there hadn’t been a front-end winner in the race since Winning Colors beat Forty Niner by a neck at Churchill Downs. At Pimlico on Saturday, in the 127th Preakness, the question is whether the jockeys of other horses will go after War Emblem. Maybe not with the ferocity of a Forty Niner against Winning Colors, but will a rival or two step up and prevent War Emblem from cruising to another victory?

Mindful of the early challenges that his horse never got in the Derby, trainer Bob Baffert, who drew the lead picking position at Wednesday’s post-position draw, disdained the No. 6 and No. 7 posts and chose No. 8 for War Emblem. As the rest of the draw unfolded, three of the other speed horses--Table Limit, Booklet and Menacing Dennis--drew spots outside War Emblem in the 13-horse field.

“The reason I took the 8 instead of something more inside was to put those speed horses way on the outside,” said Baffert, who has won seven Triple Crown races--three Derbies, three Preaknesses and one Belmont Stakes--out of the last 17.

Having won here with Silver Charm and Real Quiet in 1997-98 and with Point Given last year, Baffert could become the first conditioner since 1900 to twice notch consecutive victories in Pimlico’s premier race.

But in the opinion of Pimlico’s Frank Carulli, making the Preakness betting line for the first time, Medaglia d’Oro, not the Derby winner, will go off the favorite. Medaglia d’Oro, the fourth-place finisher in the Derby after a bumpy start cost him position early, is listed as the 5-2 favorite, followed by War Emblem at 3-1 and Harlan’s Holiday at 9-2. While the weather forecast for Saturday is iffy, the best guess is that expected rain will end by noon, resulting in a fast track.

“Medaglia d’Oro was the only Derby horse that had an excuse,” Carulli said. Of the last six Derby winners, only one--Fusaichi Pegasus, in 2000--went off favored in the Preakness.

Much like the Carulli, rival trainers are not in awe of War Emblem.

“When he gets his own way, as he did in the Illinois Derby and the Kentucky Derby, War Emblem is very dangerous,” said Ken McPeek, who trains Harlan’s Holiday, the 6-1 Derby favorite who ran seventh. “But he’s really a one-dimensional horse, and that makes him suspect when he doesn’t get an easy lead.”

John Ward Jr., who couldn’t beat Harlan’s Holiday in their last two Derby preps and then didn’t run his Booklet at Churchill Downs, is expected to tell his jockey, Pat Day, to pressure Baffert’s horse from the break. Asked if War Emblem is good enough to sweep the Triple Crown--a feat last achieved by Affirmed in 1978--Ward said:

“Let’s wait until Saturday to say whether War Emblem’s a standout. I don’t even think that [Prince Ahmed Salman, War Emblem’s owner] or [Baffert] know right now whether they have a standout or not.”

Ten minutes after the Derby, Jerry Bailey, who finished 12th astride Castle Gandolfo, predicted that War Emblem would find the going tougher at Pimlico. Bailey, having replaced Laffit Pincay Jr. on Medaglia d’Oro since the Derby, is in a perfect position, from post No. 5, to be the protagonist.

Proud Citizen, second in the Derby but four lengths behind War Emblem, is 6-1 on the morning line. His trainer, Wayne Lukas, who has won the Preakness five times, is also running Table Limit, who is 30-1 in his first stakes start. At Santa Anita last winter, Table Limit was a woeful loser, finishing more than 45 lengths behind the winners of three races. Then at Keeneland in April, Table Limit won twice by 12 lengths. He is running in this race as an afterthought, with Gary Stevens riding him for the first time.

“I told Bill Young [Table Limit’s owner] that I don’t know if his horse will win, but he won’t be embarrassed,” Lukas said. “We were originally pointing for the Belmont. The Derby is yesterday’s news. Proud Citizen might have won the Derby, but he needed a little help from our friends [horses with speed]. Booklet’s the key to this race. It’s up to him to run with War Emblem early.”

At Pimlico’s stakes barn Wednesday, not long after his Preakness pair had been flown to Baltimore from Louisville, Lukas didn’t have to be reminded of the bitter Winning Colors-Forty Niner donnybrook. As the trainer of Winning Colors, he had a front-row seat.

“God bless Woody Stephens,” Lukas said, “but if he hadn’t worried about my filly and stayed with his own strategy, he might have won the Preakness. Our two horses ding-donged it all the way around.”

Lukas said that he will not stray from his Derby strategy for Proud Citizen on Saturday. In other words, jockey Mike Smith will be told to sit off the pace, as he did at Churchill Downs, and hope that this time that other speed will get War Emblem lathered up. For that assignment, there appears to be more volunteers than there were on May 4.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Preakness Field

(text of infobox not included)