California is at the center of the country’s egg mess. Here’s why and what’s coming

Easter isn’t until April, but the hunt is on for eggs.

As a devastating outbreak of bird flu thins chicken populations and market forces drive grocery prices up, the breakfast and baking staple has become pricier and harder to find.

The average price of a dozen eggs has nearly doubled since last year and hit a record high of $4.95 in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Price tags are even heftier in California, where grocery stores are charging $9 or more for a dozen eggs.

The spike has contributed to an overall rise in grocery prices, which increased half a percent last month, the Labor Department’s consumer price index report released this week found.

Some grocery chains, including Trader Joe’s and Kroger, have placed limits on the amount of eggs shoppers can purchase in an attempt to address the shortage.

Why are egg prices so high?

The primary factor behind the jump in egg prices is an avian flu epidemic, which has led to the deaths of more than 21 million chickens, including 13 million in December alone.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the population of conventionally caged chickens has been reduced by 8%. There have been confirmed outbreaks of avian influenza in eight states, including California.

“This virus is historically unprecedented,” said Sanjay Sharma, an adjunct professor of finance and business economics at USC’s Marshall School of Business. “The reason for the egg shortage is very clear. Birds are getting this flu and they have to be culled as quickly as possible.”

In many cases, whole flocks have to be killed in order to prevent the spread of the disease.

What’s the situation in California?

As eggs become scarcer and suppliers struggle to keep up with demand, prices will rise. The cost of a dozen eggs has risen 15% over the last four weeks, and prices are higher on the West Coast.

California egg prices are particularly high because the state relies largely on its own production of eggs, which has been diminished by the influenza outbreak. Forty percent of eggs consumed in California are produced in the state, Sharma said.

“Everybody likes fresh eggs, so we typically eat the eggs we produce,” he said. “Right now, that’s presenting a problem.”

How long will the scarcity last?

Egg prices will likely return to normal once the chicken population is replenished and eggs are being produced at a normal rate, said Dominick Miserandino, chief executive of RetailWire. How long that takes depends on the course of the disease and farmer operations.

“Right now there is no end that I can see,” Miserandino said. “There is a degree of market panic and overreaction that’s making things worse.”

As grocers place limits on the amount of eggs a shopper can buy, some consumers will assume the worst and attempt to buy in bulk, Miserandino said, further straining the market. He compared the potential scenario to the heavy demand for toilet paper during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to empty shelves.

It can take months to raise a new flock of chickens, Sharma said, and there’s a risk bird flu could continue to spread among them. “If the next flock is infected as well, then we need a real systemic solution,” he said. “I don’t think that there is one out there.”

Is there anything I can do to save money?

There’s no need to hoard eggs, experts said. Most grocers that are implementing restrictions on eggs are limiting shoppers to two dozen per trip.

“Whenever there’s a shortage, people start to hoard,” Sharma said. “It’s a human instinct, but it’s a self-defeating cycle. It’s absolutely better for everybody if people don’t hoard.”

Sharma said he’s heard of instances of shoppers buying as many as 500 eggs from Costco in one trip. He suspects they are reselling them to restaurants and bakeries at a lower price than other suppliers.

“Egg prices are at an all-time high and people get quite nervous,” Miserandino said. “The simple advice would be, don’t panic and do the research.”

What about other groceries?

Labor Department data show that several grocery items have become more expensive since last year, including ground beef, milk and fresh chicken. If President Trump successfully implements his steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, produce prices could soar.

Trump campaigned on the promise that he would lower grocery prices, after frequently blaming President Biden for inflation and high everyday costs.